Does Land Use Planning Slow the Conversion of Forest and Farm Lands?

Land use planning often is implemented to control development on forests and farmland, but its impact on land use remains untested. Previous studies evaluating such programs have relied on anecdotal evidence rather than on data describing actual land use change. A model of land use is specified as a function of socioeconomic factors, land rent, and landowners’ characteristics, to examine how well Oregon’s land use planning program has protected forests and farmland from development. The empirical model describes the probability that forests and farmland in western Oregon and western Washington were developed to residential, commercial, or industrial uses, before and after Oregon’s land use planning program took effect. Land use data are provided by the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis program. Results suggest that Oregon’s land use planning program has concentrated development within urban growth boundaries since its implementation, but its success at reducing the likelihood of development on resource lands located within forest use and exclusive farm use zones remains uncertain.